Economic Trends in Eastern Europe Vol. 24. No. 2. 2015

Economic TrendsEconomic Trends in Eastern Europe Vol. 24. No. 2. 2015 has been published. In this, we write that the pace of global economic recovery lost some momentum in 2015 compared to the second half of the last year, both in the highly developed countries and in the emerging regions. As a result, the acceleration of world trade growth halted as well. The forecasts have been adjusted downward. At present, a global growth of 3.4% seems likely, a slight deceleration compared to 2014, hopefully with a reacceleration in 2016 to 3.8%. There may be some upward risks, as the slowdown at the beginning of the year may a result of temporary factors. Yet, the recent results of several confidence surveys suggest that the pace of recovery will remain moderate, and even the 2016 projection has some downward risks.

As far as the Hungarian economy is concerned, although as a growing consensus was forming during the last third of the last year that the pace of economic growth in 2014 would surpass 3%, growth forecasts for this year, on average, remained remarkably conservative among the 20 institutions polled by Consensus Economics until as late as the spring of 2015. Forecasts veried widely, but – apart from a couple of foreign institutions – even the optimists did not expect the GDP to grow at a rate above 2.5%, until last September. As for the pessimists, they predicted a growth rate below 2% even in March.