GDP growth accelerated in Q4

160205_Ipar_EN_1According to the preliminary data, unadjusted GDP rose by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2015,  while the seasonally and working day adjusted growth rate reached 3%, a good pace compared to the EU28, but definitely unimpressive compared to the other Eastern European new member states. Even so, the year-end acceleration of growth surpassed expectations, yet the annual average GDP growth – 2.9% – was in line with our forecast.

The gross production of industry was up 9.7% in Q4, the fastest quarterly growth in 2015, while construction output remained almost flat, defying pessimistic expectations. The downward slide of agricultural value added may have eased compared to the average rate of decline (16.6%) in the previous three quarters. The growth of services, on the other hand, probably lost steam from the 3.7% in the third quarter.

On the expenditure side, apparently net export remained strong, surpassing expectations, while domestic demand accelerated, although its growth rate probably did not exceed 1.5% significantly. It is likely that private consumption gained momentum, growing at a rate above 2.5%, while fixed investments stagnated or slightly expanded.