GDP growth picks up some pace

According to the preliminary data, the GDP was up 3.6 percent in the third quarter, a moderate acceleration compared to the 3.3 percent in Q2. The seasonally and working day adjjusted growth rate accelerated to a similar degree, from 3.6 to 3.8 percent, actually a rather meager pace compared to other countries of the region. The quarter-on-quarter growth decelerated to a very underwhelming 0.8 percent but it is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter. On the whole, GDP expanded at a rate of 3.7 percent in the first three quarter of the year, a slight deceleration from the (revised) 3.8 percent in the first half.

The fact that the third-quarter growth could not gain more speed suggests that – based on the CSO commentary – while the growth of market services accelerated considerably, agricultural decline remained within the two-digit range. On the expenditure side, a palpable but not drastic strengthening of consumption growth was probably accompanied by a pronounced negative growth contribution of net exports, a joint product of slower export growth and the continuation, possibly a further pick up, of buoyant import growth.

GDP growth is expected to shift on a higher gear in the fourth quarter on the back of markedly stronger industrial growth and a further acceleration of consumption growth.