Industrial growth accelerates

According to preliminary data, industrial production in July expanded by 4.8% year-on-year. This is certainly good news after the mild drop in June but the unadjusted data makes the upturn appear exaggerated: according to working day adjusted data, industrial volume expande130906_Ipar_elozo evi atlag_ENd by 2.5% y-o-y after 1.7% growth in June. Export sales were likely to contribute to the acceleration in industrial growth, as it seems form preliminary foreign trade data.

Seasonally and working day adjusted month-on-month growth was also positive, although decelerated to 0.3% from 1.2% in June. Seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production remained above last year’s average level, and we predict this to stay so in the rest of the year. Hence, we keep forecasting 0.5% industrial growth for 2013 as a whole.