Industrial production: another disappointing month

industrial output_12_05According to the preliminary figures, the partial recovery of growth in September relapsed again in October: industrial production expanded by only 1.7% year-on-year. The disappointing data cannot be attributed to statistical base effect: with a decrease of 2.6% compared to September, the seasonally adjusted production volume returned to its August level. Industrial production basically seems to have been stuck during the last three months at a level that is way below the July peak.

This is hardly surprising, considering that its usual anchor – German manufacturing exports – also seem to freeze at the moment.  But the domestic sales of Hungarian industry have also took a hit in the recent months – October was probably no exception. In light of the new production data, even a 7.5% industrial growth for 2014 seems to be a relatively optimistic prediction at the moment.