Industrial production: some acceleration, but not yet a trend change

In November, year-on-year industrial growth reaccelerated to 5.8% (after a mere 1.7% in October). But this growth rate is still far from the pace registered during April-July (around and above 10%) – a return to those dynamic growth rates is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

The November reacceleration is largely due to the month-on-month growth of 3.3%. This upturn, however, looks more like a continuation of the zigzagging of (seasonally adjusted) monthly production volumes rather than an actual trend change.  Hopefully a more clear upward trend will unfold during the early months of 2015. We expect industrial production to grow by an average 7.5% in 2014 and a growth rate of roughly 5% in 2015.industrialprod_01_08.jpg_2 industrial output_01_08