Industrial upturn is helped by statistical base effect

131206_Ipar 2_ENAccording to the preliminary data, gross industrial production was up by 6% in October against the same month of the last year, a further acceleration on the 5.5% registered in September and the 3.3% average of the third quarter.  The working day adjusted production grew by 6% as well year-on-year, the highest growth rate since early 2011.131206_Ipar_EN

It should be noted that the year-on-year growth rate was boosted by the low volume level in the base period: the dramatic fall in industrial activity, experienced in late 2012, began in October.  The seasonally and working day adjusted data shows 0.5% decrease of industrial production volume compared to September 2013. Such a slight decrease, however, may well be just a one-off blip in a distinct upward trend, rather than the harbinger of an end of that trend. In the light of the relatively strong growth in the last two months, overall industrial growth in 2013 as a whole is likely to exceed 1.5%.