Industry: disappointing year-end

Even though it was known that the negative calendar effect would keep the unadjusted year-on-year growth rate down in December, the negative growth of industrial production – by 0.5 percent – was clearly a disappointment. Forecasters – including the Kopint-Tárki – reckoned that the November dip in the seasonally and working day adjusted output (compared to both the previous month and to the overall trend) would be followed by a sharp upturn in December, keeping the unadjusted year-on-year growth well within positive territory. In this case, the annual average industrial growth could be kept at, or even above, 5 percent.

But the actual outcome was different: compared to the previous month, the seasonally adjusted industrial output was up only by 1.2 percent, not even on par with the 2.1 percent decline in November. As a result, even the working day adjusted year-on-year growth was subpar (4.5 percent), and the annual average growth rate was as low as 4.8 percent in 2016.

The disappointing ending of the last year notwithstanding, the mostly favorable external environment and the new automotive capacities that are due to begin operate during this year suggest the continuation of industrial growth in 2018, probably at a higher pace than in the last year.

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