Industry shifts to a higher gear

industrial prod2According to the preliminary data, industrial production grew at an unadjusted rate of 11.6% in March – the calendar adjusted growth rate hit 9%. Both numbers are higher than in any month since July 2014. The CSO also made an upward adjustment to the January-February growth rates (and absolute volumes); as a result, the first quarter of 2015 saw an average industrial growth of 8%.

The strong year-on-year growth in March was mainly due to a jump of 2.6% in the seasonally adjusted production volume compared to the previous month. But the statistical base effect also helped somewhat – the seasonally adjusted output remained flat in March 2014. The April data will probably show a deceleration of industrial growth, due to the upturn of output volume in the base period.

In light of the strong March data, an annual growth rate above 6% can be almost taken for granted for 2015 – in fact, industrial growth may even hit or exceed 7% this year.

industrial prod