Industry: stagnation in July

Although a temporary dip in industrial activity during the summer has become a common feature in the recent years, the month-on-month fall in the seasonally adjusted monthly output by as much as 4.2 percent in July is a negative surprise. It led to the year-on-year stagnation – 0.2 percent growth – of industrial production. As a result, the cumulative growth rate in January-July was only 4.8 percent, which casts doubt about whether the yearly average growth can surpass 5 percent, even assuming that the July stagnation was a one-off bump followed by a seamless return to the previously observed rising trend.

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