Kopint-Tárki Institute for Economic Research Co.
1112 Budapest, Budaőrsi út 45.,
tel.: +36 1 309-2695, fax: +36 1 309 2647,
e-mail: info@kopint-tarki.hu
The Monetary Council of the MNB, in line with our expectation and the market consensus, cut the base rate to 3.4% – a new historic low. As the move
fulfilled market expectations it did not trigger any sharp investors’ reaction. The Monetary Council believes that inflation remains moderate on a mid-term horizon that justifies loose monetary conditions. Hence, “considering the outlook for inflation and the real economy and taking into account perceptions of the risks associated with the economy, further cautious easing of monetary conditions may follow” – says the communique of the Council. This appears supporting our view that by the year-end the base rate is likely to be cut by another 30 basis points all together.
Forecasts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.6% | -5.8% | 3.5% |
| Gross Fixed Capital Formation | 10.4% | -9.6% | 4.5% |
| Industrial Production | 5.6% | -6.4% | 4.5% |
| Gross Salaries | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.0% |
| Unemployment* | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
| Current+Capital Account** | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| General Government** | -2.0% | -8.9% | -7.0% |
| Consumer Price Index* | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| MNB Base Rate*** | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 10-Year Yield*** | 2.01% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end
Fact Forecast
A new IMF study showed that both workers and the receiving countries are beneficiaries of emigration while sending countries are experiencing negative impacts.
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1112 Budapest, Budaőrsi út 45., telefonszám: +36 1 309-2695, faxszám: +36 1 309 2647
e-mail: info@kopint-tarki.hu