Outstanding external trade surplus in November

140109_Kulker1_ENAccording to the preliminary data, the trade surplus reached EUR 804bn in November, beating expectations. Unlike in November 2012, the surplus grew against October. Given the strong November figure, trade surplus is likely to hit EUR 7.1-7.3bn in 2013 as a whole.

This drastic surplus growth was accompanied by a minimal (less than 1%, y-o-y) growth of euro-denominated exports and a year-on-year decrease of more than 2.5% in imports. Hence, the outstanding surplus was not caused by an outstanding export dynamism. Unsurprisingly, the value of exports decreased in November against the previous month, suggesting a slight year-end softening of industrial growth. In turn, a relatively pronounced drop in imports occurred. In fact, the year-on-year decrease in imports is somewhat surprising, considering the apparent revival of consumer demand and the likely continuation of strong investment growth.