Temporary fall in industrial production

According to the preliminary numbers, the volume of gross industrial production decreased by 1.4% in August year-on-year, after a particularly strong upturn in July. The negative growth in itself was not a surprise, seeing t131008_Industrial production_volume ind_2he high level in the base period, but the pace of decrease was somewhat stronger than expected.

The data suggest, however, that the decrease is en131008_Industrial production_volume indtirely due to the strong negative calendar effect: the working day adjusted industrial production was up by 0.9% against the same month of 2012, the third positive monthly growth in a row.

The seasonally and working day adjusted production was also up in August, both compared to the previous month and – despite the high base level – the same month of 2012. This confirms that the unfavourable unadjusted growth index is rather a one-off swing than a reflection of a substantial negative turn in industrial trends. The level of the seasonally adjusted production is firmly above the average level of 2012, and this is unlikely to change over the rest of the year. We maintain our industrial growth forecast of 0.5% for 2013.